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Former Defense Secretary William Perry sounds warning at MIIS workshop

August 1, 2018

Monterey >> The United States and Russia are closer to a nuclear exchange than at any time since the Cold War, warned former Defense Secretary William Perry recently at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey.

Perry, who served two terms during President Bill Clinton's administration, made the statement during a Tuesday luncheon capping off a three-day workshop attended by nuclear experts, Gov. Jerry Brown, Congressman Jimmy Panetta and a significant Russian delegation that included officials from the Center for Energy and Security – the Russian counterpart to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies – and Inga Yumasheva, a member of the Russian Duma, the equivalent of the U.S. Congress.

The danger, Perry said, is not from increasing antagonism between the countries, although that exists, rather because the two countries are "void of a two-way dialogue."

"Even during the depth of the Cold War we did not lack the dialogue we lack today," Perry said.

The workshop took particular aim at the recent Singapore and Helsinki summits attend by North Korea and Russia respectively. William Potter, the director of the nonproliferation center, said it was difficult for experts to gauge what progress, if any, came from the summits.

"There was so little transparency on the U.S. side," he said. Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump spent roughly 90 minutes alone in a room with only translators but neither supplied the public with details of the discussion and, according to Potter, it is not apparent that even senior members of the U.S. government are well informed about what transpired.

"The administration was not forthcoming."

Potter gave an example of bilateral cooperation in 1977 when both the U.S. and Russia cooperated to thwart a secret South African nuclear weapons program.

There was nuclear nonproliferation cooperation then that is lacking today, Potter said. "It appears the summits were a missed opportunity" to restore nonproliferation cooperation.

In Perry's view the danger today is the two countries would accidently start a nuclear war because no one is talking to the other.

"We have come close to blundering into nuclear war several times," Perry said.

The first was in 1962 during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the Soviet Union attempted to deploy nuclear warheads in Cuba that would have been aimed at the United States. Despite a unanimous recommendation from President John Kennedy's Joint Chiefs, he opted out of the attack and the likelihood of a nuclear exchange.

The second time was in 1979 when operators at the U.S. missile warning center were shocked to see their displays light up with the ultimate horror: a full-scale Soviet nuclear attack bearing down on the United States. The military held off until a fighter squadron could positively identify inbound missiles. It turned out a command control operator entered the wrong computer code that generated a false alarm.

Three years later in 1982 the computers in the Serpukhov-15 bunker outside Moscow, which housed the command center of the Soviet early warning satellite system, twice reported that U.S. intercontinental ballistic missiles were heading toward the Soviet Union. Stanislav Petrov, who was duty officer that night, suspected that the system was malfunctioning and managed to convince his superiors of the same thing. He argued that if the U.S. was going to attack pre-emptively it would do so with more than just five missiles, and that it was best to wait for ground radar confirmation before launching a counter-attack. It turned out to be yet another computer malfunction, this time on the Soviet side.

The key point, Perry said, is that the two countries were talking to each other in the 70s and 80s, and that in turn thwarted what could have been the world's first and likely last nuclear holocaust.

But today the countries are rebuilding toward a second Cold War, Perry said, with Russia and the U.S. both rebuilding their respective nuclear arsenals. Each country has roughly 4,000 nuclear warheads, more than enough to turn the planet into radioactive ash.

The dangers do not lie solely with the Russians and Americans. Nuclear powers India and Pakistan have missiles pointed at each other with a constant string of threatening rhetoric coming from both capitals. And there are reports that North Korea's ambitious nuclear weapons program has not abated despite the recent talks.

"It was a missed opportunity," Perry said.

With that daunting scenario, the experts turned to solutions to the status quo, focusing on the effectiveness of the Singapore and Helsinki summits. The consensus among the experts is that very little was accomplished during either summit.

"Leaders in both countries (U.S.-N. Korea) do not understand the danger," Perry said.

But Siegfried Hecker, a Stanford University professor of international studies and a member of the American delegation, demurred somewhat from the consensus by noting that anytime world leaders meet and talk that it is a positive step forward. But even Hecker conceded that the personalities involved were lacking in the skills necessary to move forward.

"We have two inexperienced leaders and one unpredictable leader," Hecker said. "I'll let you decide who they are."

Hecker recently met with U.S. State Department staff and came away believing that there are still talented diplomats in the administration who understand both how to make diplomatic strides and understand the complexities of working with Russia and North Korea.

"The fact that the administration is saying positive things about the summits is a positive step forward," he said.

Perry said solutions for reducing both the number of weapons and the risks involved is to normalize relations through joint economic development. Hecker added that long-term, even permanent progress can be achieved through treaties. Treaties must be approved by Congress so they carry the weight of the law of the land.

Whether through economic development or treaties, the 90-year-old Perry stressed that it is imperative to reverse the direction the country is taking in its dealings with Russia and North Korea.

"I will spend the rest of my life reducing the chances of nuclear war for all the American and all the Russian grandchildren," he said.